2026: Cashflow Strategy Amid Economic Uncertainty

As organisations look toward 2026, uncertainty remains a defining feature of both the global and Australian economic landscape. For family offices and family‑run businesses — where long‑term stewardship, capital preservation and intergenerational priorities intersect — early planning and disciplined cashflow management have become essential.

A Global Economy Showing Resilience, But With Clear Fragilities

The global economy continues to demonstrate resilience; however, growth momentum is slowing.
The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report forecasts global output rising 2.6% in 2026, edging down from 2025 and putting the 2020s on track to be the weakest decade for global growth since the 1960s. This reflects easing trade activity, abating inflation pressures, and fading one‑off economic boosts seen in 2025. 

This dynamic is confirmed across multiple regions — with uneven performance, ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks continuing to weigh on sentiment.

For family‑run enterprises, these macroeconomic conditions directly translate into operational pressure: tighter working capital cycles, elevated input costs and heightened exposure to supply chain disruption.

Interest Rates: Australia Prepares for Possible Rate Rises in 2026

While many global economies are easing monetary policy, Australia is moving in the opposite direction.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has signalled a more hawkish stance heading into 2026, with Governor Michele Bullock stating she does not see rate cuts “on the horizon” and that the Board is weighing an extended hold or a rate increase.

Economists at major banks have also shifted their forecasts:

• CBA and NAB now expect a February 2026 rate rise of 0.25%, with NAB forecasting a second hike in May. 

• These moves would lift the cash rate to between 3.85% and 4.10% by end‑2026, depending on the institution.

For family enterprises — many of which rely on debt for growth, property portfolios, operating capital or strategic reinvestment — higher borrowing costs reinforce the need for proactive cashflow preparation and liquidity planning.

Why Early Planning Matters More in 2026

1. Cashflow Is the Strongest Defence Against Uncertainty

With global trade softening and economic momentum moderating, liquidity buffers provide the flexibility to respond to shifting conditions rather than react under pressure.

2. Australian Interest Rate Risk Requires Proactive Balance Sheet Management

Potential rate hikes in early 2026 mean organisations should prepare for:

• Higher debt‑servicing costs

• Pressure on household‑linked spending

• Reduced refinancing capacity

  Planning now allows businesses to restructure facilities or strengthen cash positions ahead of tightening conditions.

3. Generational Transitions Are More Successful With Financial Clarity

As leadership succession accelerates across family offices, clear visibility of cashflow, working capital requirements and debt positions builds confidence among future leaders.

4. Operational Agility Depends on Forward Visibility

Executives globally remain cautiously optimistic, yet geopolitical instability remains a material risk factor. Organisations with early planning in place are better positioned to seize opportunities — from acquisitions to reinvestment — as competitors remain constrained.

What Family Offices and Family‑Run Businesses Should Do Now

• Update cashflow forecasts for 2026 under multiple interest‑rate scenarios.

• Stress‑test working capital for supply‑chain delays, wage pressures and shifting demand.

• Strengthen liquidity reserves ahead of possible RBA tightening.

• Build scenario plans around leadership or ownership transition timelines.

• Closely monitor cost structures — particularly energy and insurance — with upside inflation risk still present.

Conclusion: 2026 Will Reward the Prepared

While the global economy has proven resilient, the interplay of geopolitical risk, structural inflation and Australia’s potential rate rises means uncertainty will remain a defining feature of 2026.
For family offices and family‑run businesses — where decisions shape outcomes across generations — early planning, disciplined cashflow management and proactive leadership will differentiate those who navigate uncertainty with confidence.

Realign Consulting supports family enterprises with clarity, pragmatism and a steady hand through periods of ambiguity. If you are preparing your organisation for 2026 and beyond, we’d be pleased to assist.

If you would like to discuss further, please reach out to Rob Martin at rob@realignconsulting.com.